Friday, May 17, 2019

Risk Prediction Presentation


Introduction
    The use of violence risk assessment tools within criminal justice and forensic psychiatry has been on the rise in the recent past.
    However, there is limited data that is relevant, reliable, and unbiased inaccurate prediction of risk.
    There are several structured tools for the assessment of the risk of violence in criminal justice.
    The tools help to inform decisions on detention, discharge, client management, and general psychiatry about violence.
    This presentation is based on a review of case studies of Colleen M. and Xander L. using selected risk assessment devices.  
    
Brief review of cases
Case 1: Colleen
    She is a 15-year old girl whose parents are irresponsible of taking care of her opting to live with an auntie.
    She had a dispute a neighbor about her dog that resulted in her death and charged with involuntary manslaughter.
    Colleen also tested positive for opiates, but she denied it.
Case 2: Xander l.
    Is a 17-year old male known as a gang member and with a history of purse snatching, breaking, and drug possession?
    He was arrested with a concealed weapon and has been in custody once and placed on probation twice.
     Xander lives with his supportive mother who is not happy with his conduct.
Summary of the risk assessment
    The choice of tools used in risk assessment is the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and the Statistical Information on Recidivism Scale (SIR).
    SIR tool combined 15 items in a scoring system and generated the probability estimates of re-offending within three years of release.
    Each item measures the demographic/criminal history aspect
    It uses positive and negative scores for individual items
    The summation item score gives a total ranging from -30 (poor risk) to +27 (very good risk). The scores are then clustered in groups ranging from very good (4/5) to the poor (1/3 prediction of succeeding).    
Continuation of risk assessment
    The PCL-R is a diagnostic tool used for rating individual psychopathic/antisocial tendencies.
    It was originally used to assess persons accused or convicted of crimes.
    It uses a 20-item symptom rating scale that allows examiners to compare the level of psychopathy with a prototype.
    The maximum score in a PCL-R tool is 40, and any score above 30 implies a diagnosis for psychopathy. 
Comparison of results for each
    For, Colleen, the score from the PCL-R tool was obtained as 21. 
    The score from the SIR tool was obtained as 3 for the group cluster.
    For, Xander, the score from the PCL-R too; was obtained to be 25. 
    The score from the SIR tool was determined as four on the group cluster results.
    A score of 21 on the PCL-R tool and three on the SIR tool shows that Colleen has not transited to a fully violent criminal, but her behavior seems to deteriorate with time.
Continuation of results comparison
    The score of 25 on the PCL-R tool and four on the SIR tool results indicate that Xander is a repeat offender and has criminals’ traits that need to be reassessed.
    The two assessments help to predict the level of violence demonstrated in the case studies.
    Xander seems to be a more violent and repeat criminal in comparison to Colleen who finds herself in violent situations.
    However, taking opiates complicates the matter, and it's easy to conclude that she is being oriented to criminal behavior.
Additional Information
    The SIR tool predicts only recidivism for the released offenders and categorizes results from very good to poor.
    On its part, PCL-R tool reviews an individual record and history of crime.
    However, the two have limitations in assessing the risk of violence on particular individuals.
    It would be appropriate to have additional information on the effect of relationship to criminal behavior, other underlying factors other than the physical criminal behavior, and the level of threat of risk to criminal behavior.
Continuation on additional information
    The relationships between the offenders and their families play a critical role in predicting criminal behavior and the risk of violence, hence necessary to assess.
    Other factors that I liked to have included the influence of the state of mind in engaging in criminal behavior which could not be comprehensively assessed through PCL-R tool.
     It would be necessary to have details on the level of risk to criminal behavior from the two case studies which does not come out from the assessment tools.
Recommendation on correctional strategy for each
Colleen
    She needs counseling on how she can accept the status of her dysfunctional family and strategies of moving on.
    She should be taken to a rehabilitation center where she can be guided on how to deal with emotional challenges other than the use of opiates.
    Colleen requires understanding how to deal with misunderstandings and conflicts without the use of violence and risky reactions. 
Continuation of recommendation
Xander
    He needs support and counseling on how he can avoid drug abuse that probably has largely influenced his conduct.
    He should be taken to a rehabilitation center to learn on how to live in peace with others, especially her mother.
    Due to the possession of a concealed weapon, Xander ought to be punished legally to understand the consequences of his conduct.
Conclusion
    Violence and criminal behavior risk assessment are crucial considerations in criminal justice.
    The discussed assessment tools are PCL-R and SIR tools which have been found to be effective in risk assessment.
    However, some limitations cannot be fully accounted for when using the tools.
    Colleen is at lower risk of engaging in criminal activity and violence in comparison to Xander who is a serial offender with a history of criminal activities.
     The two requires counseling, rehabilitation, and should understand the consequences of their behavior.      

References
    Bonta, J. (2002). Offender risk assessment: Guidelines for selection and use. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 29(4), 355-379.
    Desmarais, S., & Singh, J. (2013). Risk assessment instruments validated and implemented in correctional settings in the United States.
    Douglas, T., Pugh, J., Singh, I., Savulescu, J., & Fazel, S. (2017). Risk assessment tools in criminal justice and forensic psychiatry: the need for better data. European Psychiatry, 42, 134-137.
    Hare, R. D. (2003). The psychopathy checklist–Revised. Toronto, ON.
    James, N. (2015). Risk and Needs Assessment in the Criminal Justice System. Congressional Research Service.

Sherry Roberts is the author of this paper. A senior editor at MeldaResearch.Com in essay writing services. If you need a similar paper you can place your order from cheap assignment writing service services.

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